The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
At the end of the day, for many worldwide, the ongoing mutual attacks between Israel and Iran would seem a contest devoid of any moral high ground and only a bout between two ordinary adversaries, one that nevertheless risks spinning out of control into a larger conflagration, notes Shyam G Menon.
Since Sanjay Malhotra took office as governor in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a more accommodative stance, which bodes well for banking and the economy as they navigate a growth slowdown, according to analysts.
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and United States President Donald Trump on Monday vowed to work towards a 'trusted' partnership with a focus on boosting India-US cooperation in areas of trade, energy and defence in their first phone conversation since the American leader's inauguration last week.
The chief adviser's decision to stay in office came two days after he told student-led National Citizen Party (NCP) leaders that he was mulling resignation as he felt "the situation is such that he cannot work", citing difficulties in working amid the failure of political parties to find common ground for change.
India on Friday unveiled a slew of trade initiatives to emerge as a global hub for jewellery and auto parts and increase services exports, while pegging the export target at $120 billion in 2006-07.
'Even if India is attractive, FPIs currently lack the funds to invest, as money is being redirected to the US.'
Titan, Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, ITC, Zomato and Bajaj Finserv were also among the laggards. Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors and HDFC Bank were among the major gainers.
'By his words, actions, and body language during their joint press appearance wanted to convey his personal respect and, more broadly, his desire to work closely with India.'
'Trump's aggressive stance towards China and preference for military posturing could shift the Quad's balance towards overt militarisation.'
Foreign policy expert C Raja Mohan has said that the recent disengagement of troops with China in eastern Ladakh has given a small opening to India, but the "big issues" remain. He also stressed the importance of strengthening India's ties with the US for technological and economic growth.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 4,285 crore from Indian equities in the first three trading days of the month driven by apprehensions ahead of the third-quarter earnings season and high valuations of domestic stocks. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
During the talks, India and the US decided to take a big leap in broad-basing their strategic ties in several critical areas.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports jumped over 5 per cent. NTPC, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, Zomato, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank and Maruti were among the other big gainers. From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and UltraTech Cement were the other laggards.
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
Who accompanied Prime Minister Narendra D Modi to his Thursday meeting with US President Donald J Trump in the Oval Office, and who did POTUS bring along?
'The big power struggle in faraway Europe erupted at a most critical juncture when India has been increasingly sceptical about American policies and statesmanship,' argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
In a dramatic shift in Canada's foreign policy, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday declared that the long-standing economic and security relationship between Canada and the United States has ended, responding to US President Donald Trump's announcement of new auto tariffs that could severely impact Canada's economy, Politico reported.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
Trade links with Israel have strengthened in the past few years, even as the value of goods exchanged with Iran has diminished. Iran accounted for $3.9 billion worth of India's exports in the four quarters ending December 2019, compared to $3.6 billion to Israel. However, India's exports to Iran dropped to $1.2 billion as of December 2023, on a rolling four-quarter basis, while exports to Israel grew to $6.1 billion in the same period.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. Bajaj Finance climbed nearly 2 per cent after the company reported an 18 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India have crossed the $1 trillion milestone in the April 2000-September 2024 period, firmly establishing the country's reputation as a safe and key investment destination globally. According to data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), the cumulative amount of FDI, including equity, reinvested earnings and other capital, stood at $1,033.40 billion during the said period.
In his first meeting with Bangladesh Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday flagged concerns over the attacks on minorities, including Hindus and conveyed that any rhetoric that vitiated the environment was best avoided.
Indian businesses in the US have created about 91000 jobs in the US.
India looks less equal to China than 5 years ago, the strategic alliance with the US is hobbled by trade, and Pakistan is looking anything but chastened by Balakot. What has gone wrong? asks Shekhar Gupta.
India and China on Monday decided to resume the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra as the two sides agreed to take certain people-centric steps to 'stabilise and rebuild' ties.
The liquidity deficit in the banking system crossed Rs 2 trillion again on Monday, despite the second instalment of cash reserve ratio (CRR) reduction coming into effect from December 28.
'While the current pause offers temporary reprieve and alleviates any immediate legal pressure, the long-term implications remain uncertain.'
President Xi Jinping has said that no one can ever stop Taiwan's reunification with China as he signed off 2024 amid growing anxieties in the country over the continued slowdown of the economy and the return of Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose punitive tariffs and trade measures against Beijing in his second term.
'Expect India to keep doing well irrespective of geopolitics.'
Trump spoke approvingly of his recent telephone conversation with Xi Jinping. This could indicate the possibility of America and China reaching some level of tactical accommodation, which would not be good news for India, points out Ambassador Shyam Saran, a former foreign secretary.
RBI's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings and global cues would be the major driving factors for equity markets this week, analysts said adding that the impact of the Union Budget could linger on this week. Trading activity of foreign investors will also be a key driver for the markets, experts noted. "US and India's manufacturing PMI for January to be released on Monday, will be the key macro data to watch out for.
The issues around trade gaps, especially around steel and aluminium tariffs imposed by the US, will be addressed separately.
The Indian government does not track the number of undocumented Indian immigrants residing in the US. Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh, in a written response to a query in the Rajya Sabha, said these immigrants have "legally exited India" but have either overstayed their visa validity, or have entered the US illegally or without valid documents. The response comes at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on a two-day visit to the US, during which he will hold a bilateral meeting with President Trump. The two leaders are likely to discuss India-US cooperation in sectors like trade, investment, energy, defense, technology and immigration.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
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